Is Magic in a Speculative Bubble?

I will cut to the chase: I don't think so. You can read on if you want the world's longest possible answer to this question-in my humble opinion. First, my motive: I am a collector/online player, and expect every penny I spend on Magic to be an unrecoverable entertainment expense. I am interested in Magic Finance because it is an entertaining sub-game to watch that comes with the game of Magic. I would like the bottom-feeding I engage in to cost me as least as possible, and therefore I am looking forward to a time when there will be very little, if any speculation, which I expect will make an even larger number of Magic cards be in the under $20 per card range, which is my bottom-feeder collecting threshold.

I will use specific cards to show why I think the price increases we have seen in some cards are most likely the cause of a larger demand. This larger demand I think comes from a combination of a steady economy in the U.S-it looks like we cleared the Great Recession, at least as a group if not individually for some people; and a continually increasing player/collector base.

I will begin with Underground Sea, a key staple in Vintage and Legacy. I am only looking at paper cards. MTGO is it's own beast. Underground Sea has experienced several stable price increases since 2011. I am using data from MTG Goldfish (check it out, it's an awesome site: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/ ) I use the Revised version, because its the go-to version for people buying into Legacy.

Needless to say, this card alone is the Apple stock of Magic speculation. It is on the Reserved List. It has also been forged, which is not good. The first higher plateau took place in April 2011, and the card went from $90 to $130, which is a whopping 45 percent increase.

The next new plateau took place April 2013, and the card went from $130 to $180, another whopping 40 percent increase.

The next new plateau took place April 2014, and the price increase leveled January 2016. The card went from $180 to $340 to $280, another whopping 60 percent increase plateau to plateau.

The next new plateau took place February 2016, and the card went from $260 to $340, another whopping 30 percent increase.

The latest bump, from $350 to $400 has been modest, at only 15 percent. Still, we are talking about $400 for a card people need to play many tournament-viable Legacy decks.

There are cards on the Reserved List that don't see a lot of tournament play, and these cards are in a small speculative bubble caused by the silly Reserved List buyouts. This bubble will pop, but the aftermath will not affect other aspects of Magic, such as the price of a Revised Underground Sea. Moat, for example, used to be $300, and now is $600. It is also a fact of supply and demand that as more people collect Magic, the price of Reserved List cards will steadily increase, yet some of these price spikes don't seem to be related to an increase in collecting, and seem to be related to the current speculating bubble for these specific cards.

And then there is the effect of steady reprinting, which is great for the hobby. Wasteland is a representative example for Legacy. The card was at $50 in 2013, and is at $35 today. Keep reprinting it, Wizards! Same with Force of Will from $50 to a lot more and then down to $75. We can have additional products like Eternal Masters with both of these cards for the foreseeable future.

The same is true for Liliana of the Veil and Tarmogoyf for Modern, and also Legacy.

A Magic deck is not a box of special-looking Teddy bears. It can used to play a game. I think the current prices that are paid for some of the game's staples, especially those on the Reserved List, are defining a new level of expense on a luxury item. It is possible that these higher prices will stick, just as people who want to have a really light racing bike are willing to spend thousands of dollars for that exclusive Italian model (look up Pinarello and you will see what I am referring to). I think the next economic down bump will be the defining moment for these prices. Prices will rise and fall with the size changes to the player base, and that's not a bubble, that's just supply and demand.

Collecting Arabian Nights and Antiquities

Many of these cards are under $20 each.

Some of the commons come in two forms: dark mana symbols, which I think is the first rarity, and light mana symbols, which I think is the second rarity.

Here are the two variants for War Elephant. Notice the "3" is printed on gray on the left card and very clear on the right card.

Here is Antiquities:

Commander 1 vs 1 Mono-white Legacy Casual Deck

This is the best selection out of all the cards I have online that were issued in the old frame core sets. Most of the cards are low-power. It's a fun deck that could use some removal and card draw. Legacy is dead online, especially casual. This is why I had to turn these cards into a commander deck to play against real opponents. It's not a fair fight, though. I added a cycling land and a Commander from outside my selection. Otherwise, all of the cards are old frame core set cards issued in Limited Edition Alpha/Beta, Unlimited, Revised, 4th/5th/6th/7th Editions.

I played a real player and got clobbered.

I did it again and I can clobbered just as much. Karn... not casual, friends!

Here are a few Solitaire end states.

Standard Milling Attempt

I will not move forward with this deck, just wanted to know how viable this strategy is; and it is not viable as far as I can tell. I started with a double deck (120 cards) in Blue/Black, cut it down to normal size (60 cards), and then removed Black. I just can't mill fast enough. My milling clock is way too slow.

I won one game with the 60-card Blue/Black version because I could board swipe White Weenies.

In mono-blue, I just got to see some of the decks people are trying out, which is cool. Here is a casual Mechanized Production deck.

I also lost against a very well-built multi-colored deck. Here, I lose a land.

Then, my opponent clears the board.

Then my one hitter gets frozen by battlecruiser Pacifism (a,k,a, Desert's Hold).

And my opponent used a manland effectively.

Standard First Ramunap Excavator Deck (Red/Green Landfall)

It's the only card from Hour of Devastation in this deck. The deck is allright. I need to do better with my favorite Johnny card of the set!

I won a match 0-2 with this deck, but that was more because my opponent's deck was weak than because mine was strong. Here are screenshots from the first game. This deck lands fast, which is typical of Red/Green.

I can play Evolving Wilds from the graveyard to trigger Landfall twice. I could have done that from my hand, though. The advantage here is when I don't have any lands I can cast from my hand.

White Border MTGO as Black Border

Thanks to the Masters Edition (I, II, III, IV), we have many white border old frame cards that were issued in Unlimited, Revised, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th editions. I hunted down the ones that were pennies each (with a few exceptions that I really wanted to collect). Here they are. I love the old artwork. I got one card by mistake that was not a white border old frame card. If you can find it, you know a lot more than I do about these cards.