I am glad I cracked all those pre-pandemic packs!!!

Even though this blog is dedicated to Magic, I write here about my Yugioh collection.

I came the conclusion back in 2015 or so that Yugioh was ten years behind in collecting when compared to Magic: that the same price increases would happen in Yugioh, but delayed roughly by a decade. BUT, the two TCGs are not comparable in many ways, and these comparisons are not labeled as positive or negative, because beauty is in the eye of the beholder:

1. Yugioh is the quintessential casual player's paradise. You like JTMS? OK, we issued it at Mythic first, then a year later we issue it as a common in a precon, and it will get another twenty reprints. Dante is exhibit A here. You want it, wou got it. The reprinting is very aggressive, which means that collecting Yugioh is nothing like collecting Magic. Not only is everything up for a reprint, everything is up for a dizzying rarity change. The downside is that prices tank a lot. The upside is that if you want to collect Yugioh, you will fill many slots at bargain prices; they just won't be cards anyone will pay you any money for, at least for the next decade.
2. There are many treasures in the 1st edition printings, many many. This is where your mention of the LOB (first Yugioh English set, 2002) 1st Edition cards go. Of course, the whole set in a whole booster box has been faked! You need to know your Yugioh if you are going to buy LOB 1st Edition. Same as with ABU Duals, you need lots of comparison cards, you need to know the colors, the feel of the cardboard, the ridges in the cardboard (the early cardboard has a unique look and feel)... you need to know what you are doing.
3. The iconic cards are always in demand, always increasing in value, even the ones that have been reprinted a zillion times. Black Rose Dragon: bought unlimited from original set-crossroads of chaos, a playset, at like $5 each card a few years back, it's $10 per card today.
4. The pandemic has hit the big three in a similar way. A lot of Yugioh is getting cracked... a lot. Packs I used to get for a song are now $10 packs, packs like unlimited 2002 and 2003 packs. Even packs from the Zexal era (which at the time seemed like they were printed into oblivion) are getting expensive. Everything in the big three TCGs is getting cracked at like ten times the rate it was being cracked before this awful pandemic. I mean, look at Theros... ridiculous, those boxes sat in storage for almost a decade.
5. Yugioh collectors will have a lot more money to spend ten years out when many of them are five years into their professional careers. This is a no-brainer. Right now, most of them are broke high school and college kids.
6. Yugioh hits you from many angles, Japan-style: manga, anime, cards, movies. If you want to get into the lore, it's panoramic, even if quality varies across the various formats. Magic needs to improve a ton in this department. Magic needs a movie every two years, a really well done comic series, a cartoon series.... it's a content gap the size of the Grand Canyon.

I was very lucky to build my sample collection of Yugioh 2015 to right up to the beginning of the pandemic. I will never get that opportunity again. I seized the moment. I cracked unlimited packs of every set except for Invasion of Chaos and Magician's Force. I cracked several Ghost Rares for 5Ds and Zexal, most unlimited, but a Ghost Rare is a Ghost Rare (these are equivalent to the lottery cards in Magic). I even got some on video.

If you cracked a lot of Magic, Pokemon and Yugioh before the pandemic, consider yourself lucky. We probably still have 6 to 9 months of being holed up in the pandemic, and there will be a lot more packs getting cracked while we all wait to resume our normal lives. Prices of sealed product for the big three for everything produced before the pandemic will increase. Simple supply and demand.

The Fundamental Failure of the Variants in One Set Blocks and no Core Set era

 I can imagine being present at the meetings where the one set block was sold (and bought) by the people at Wizards with the power to implement this significant mistake. The logic is simple, as it often is for great successes and great failures: 

our players love many types of sets and many types of worlds >> we can visit more worlds and a wider variety of game mechanics new and old the faster we shift from block to block >> our traditional blocks last a whole year in three sets >> we can triple the frequency of visits by going to one set blocks >> one set blocks are the answer 

The logic of great successes is equally simple:

Our large sets are drafted best in two-color archetypes >> let's make a three set block that is designed around two-color archetypes >> Ravnica I, II, III, and someday, I hope, IV, V, VI, and infinity.

But it gets worse because there is an additional logical sequence for failure that has been sold and bought at Wizards: that the core set needs to be replaced by a set that sells better. This one makes sense from a short-term financial perspective. It is true that core sets don't sell as well, initially, as other sets do. But long term, core sets sell for many more years than block sets do. Why? well, because people like me, when we build cubes, we need core set cards to glue the cube together. I still buy M12 and M13 packs. I use those cards in cubes. In addition, Magic without new players will wither and die, and the core set is that introductory product. By getting rid of the core set (again!), Wizards is reducing the number of new players. You don't believe me, right? I have no evidence, right? If I am wrong, I am just one random dude. If I am right, Magic will have some rough times ahead specifically because of several major mistakes I discuss here: variants in products that cannibalize casual products, the one set block, and the abandonment of the core set. 

Here is the logic then:

our players love many types of sets and many types of worlds >> we can visit more worlds and a wider variety of game mechanics new and old the faster we shift from block to block >> our traditional blocks last a whole year in three sets >> we can triple the frequency of visits by going to one set blocks >> one set blocks are the answer >> oh and the core sets sells like crap >> out with the core set >> we can quadruple the frequency of visits

We have a precendent for what can happen when the core set is abandoned, and even if the Amonkhet era is not exactly comparable, it is similar. Back then, we had two block sets with one large set and one small set. Complete cycles, especially complete uncommon cycles, are important sellers of packs. The Ranvica I, II, and III cycles of uncommons, and commons make those packs eternally in high demand. It's dumb to crack packs for rares and mythics, but if there is a solid and complete common or uncommon cycle, those packs will get cracked into oblivion (the signets, the guild mages, the guild charms. The Eldraine+ era at least does have some complete cycles, and all sets are large. This is great. At least this mistaken era does not have the problem of incomplete cycles. This mistaken era only shares the lack of a core set with that other mistaken era. With all large sets, we do have plenty of cards that make decks better in a way we did not during the Amonkhet era. 

Enter cash-generating ideas that can be sold to managers who get paid to deliver a higher stock valuation this financial reporting quarter: variants that sell packs at a higher price point. 

Here is the logic then:

our players love many types of sets and many types of worlds >> we can visit more worlds and a wider variety of game mechanics new and old the faster we shift from block to block >> our traditional blocks last a whole year in three sets >> we can triple the frequency of visits by going to one set blocks >> one set blocks are the answer >> oh and the core sets sells like crap >> out with the core set >> we can quadruple the frequency of visits >> many variants increases collectability and allow us to make more expensive packs

So what do we have?

1. Variants triggering whales into a speculative wave that prices out the casual player out of collecting complete sets. These variants and the products they are sold in canibalize causal products.
2. Sets that live in their own worlds generating decks that are mostly one-set decks.
3. Fewer products like Ravnica III to get today's new players to be tomorrow's cube builders.

There are solid counters to all of my points:

1. If Wizards makes more money, it's better for the game.
2. Look at all these worlds we are visiting. Aren't they cool?
3. One-set blocks have good drafting environments (Eldraine, Ikoria, others).

So what is this fundamental failure? Today's Magic is for whales and it is not for casual players. Whales give Wizards managers a short term fix. Casual players generate long term income. Can someone in Wizards management tell the difference between long term income and short term cash grabs before it is too late? Let's hope so. This peasant is on another Amonkhet-like fat packs only break. When the next three sets of Ravnica get announced, can someone reach out to me?

Jace, the Mind Sculptor as a Yugioh card

 Having played a lot with JTMS in Legacy on MTGO, this card is missing a lot of how the card would translate into Yugioh,

https://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?printed=true&multiverseid=195297

IMHO. Jace is not a beat stick planeswalker, instead good at controlling the game. ATK 0 DEF 1000 is enough (think Relinquished with a def buff). If you can remove JTMS when he lands, he is easy enough to remove. In that sense, he is a lot more like Yata Garasu + Relinquished. The effects are the ones that matter. Jace controlling the top of your opponent's deck is super strong. In Magic, you make your opponent keep drawing lands and it's usually game over. I would translate that to something like 'If your opponent has at least one effect monster on the field, look at the top of your opponent's deck and choose from placing that card back on the top of the deck or at the bottom of opponent's deck.' The second effect is Brainstorm, and I would translate that to 'If you control no monsters on the field, look at the top three cards of your deck and place two of those cards back on the top of your deck in any order.' I would translate the Unsummon effect to 'If your opponent controls at least two monsters, send one of those monsters back to the hand.'

And then, of course, the JTMS ultimate is just sick in Magic. But in Yugioh, unlike Magic, there are many ways to interact with the exile/banish zone. There is one, just one lonely creature in Magic that can be played from exile (Misthollow Griffin from Avacyn Restored), and nothing else interacts with the exile zone, period. This one is very difficult to translate. Because in Yugioh your opponent could use the newly exiled graveyard a lot more, I would change the hand draw clause. I think a JTMS ultimate in Yugioh could read something like: 'If you have less than 2000 life points than your opponent, banish your opponent's graveyard and hand, then your opponent draws five cards from their banish zone.'

And for the final flavor fix, I would have JTMS as a ritual monster since he is blue in Magic.

Fetchland Reprints Program (FRP) might as well be money printing.

 Wizards has done such a great job milking the fetchlands. First, some background:

The best dual lands in Magic come in untapped and have basic land types. For example, Tropical Island is both a Forest and an Island, and it enters untapped.

The next best dual lands in Magic are the fetchlands. The fetchlands come in, are sacrificed for 1 life, and fetch basic lands. Enter the Reserved List, and Wizards does not reprint the original duals. Therefore, the fetchlands are the best dual lands that Wizards can print for as long as the company abides by the Reserved List. 

The first cycle of fetchlands, in allied colors, were printed in Onslaught, and reprinted in Khans of Tarkir. The second cycle of fetchlands, in enemy colors, were printed in Zendikar. These have been the three instances when fetchlands have been in Standard. The supply of allied fetchlands is larger than the supply of enemy fetchlands, at least judging by how often they have been printed in Standard, and that the Khans of Tarkir printing was for the much larger, post Return to Ravnica player population. 

After the Khans of Tarkir allied fetchland printing, the ten fetchlands have become the greatest source of reprint equity for Wizards. These ten lands are the targets for reprinting in specialty products. The ten fetchlands have been reprinted as expeditions for Battle for Zendikar (or Zendikar II) and Zendikar Rising (or Zendikar III). The enemy fetchlands have been additionally reprinted in Modern Masters 2017.

Enter the formats: 

1. Vintage and Legacy, pretty much dead formats. These 'boutique' formats are played with proxies, or played with original dual lands by players who either bought these cards before they became uber-expensive, or spent ungodly amounts of money on cardboard.

2. Modern, which does not have access to the original dual lands. In Modern, the fetchlands rule the format, and are the main barrier to entry. I don't think it's debatable that Modern has endured a decline as the fetchlands have increased in price.

3. Pioneer, which begins with Return to Ravnica, and in which the five allied fetchlands from Khans of Tarkir are banned. Pioneer does not care about fetchlands.

4. Historic (Arena-only format Ixalan forward), and Standard also do not care about fetchlands.

Therefore, when we talk about fetchlands, we are talking about Modern price gate-keeping. Wizards has announced that the ten fetchlands will be in the Modern Horizons 2 set as regular booster cards. The questions that need to be answered are:

1. Will the reprinting of fetchlands as Zendikar III expeditions lower the price of the fetchlands, and to what level?

2. Will the reprinting of fetchlands in Modern Horizons 2, next year, lower the price of the fetchlands, and to what level?

I believe that Wizards has decided to keep the floor for the most sought-after fetchlands at $40, and that this floor will not go below $40. Because of how long it has taken the company to reprint the fetchlands (since either Khans of Tarkir or Modern Masters 2017), many players who wanted to play Modern at near-competitive or competitive levels have not been able to afford to do so.

The only way for this floor to go lower is for the Modern player population to go down despite the availability of fetchlands, and I don't think that will happen. I think there is a large number of potential players wanting to enter the Modern format, and that is why I believe that:

1. Wizards might as well be printing money every time they reprint fetchlands.

2. The $40 floor for the most sought-after fetchlands will remain.

Even if in a post-COVID scenario we can all go on vacation and spend less money on Magic, that will mean that less of Modern Horizons 2 will be printed, and even in that scenario, the $40 floor for the most sought-after fetchlands will remain. 

The answer to both questions above, unless the player population decreases, is that the $40 floor for the most sought-after fetchlands will remain.

P.S. Commander has slowly displaced Standard as the most popular format, or so we believe. But Commander players only need one of each fetchland. They will be willing to pay exorbitant amounts of money for these cards regardless of how many get reprinted. 

Trostani 8-set Standard

This deck has some fun interactions.

Constellation triggers tokens from casting enchantments.

Beast Whisperer draws me cards every time I cast a creature.

Arboreal Grazer is great to drop two lands early game and also to trigger Beast Whisperer middle to late game.

What's better than Beast Whisperer? Multiple Beast Whisperers. It's a 4-drop, though.

This will rarely happen, but it's what makes this deck fun.

Trostani drops two tokens.

Making one of the creatures hexproof is really useful. I have used this trick in so many decks!

And when combined with Hydra's Growth, it's a key feature of the deck.

Victory's Envoy only needs to be on the board one turn to make all creatures bigger.

Inflating the Magic Bubble

 I have been watching the Magic bubble inflate for a while. I have also seen many call the impending burst of the bubble, and it has not happened. I believe that none of us know when the bubble will burst. First, I would like to go through the logic of why we are in a bubble.

A bubble in any collectible is defined by an increasing demand followed by large increases in prices that is not organic. In Magic, organic means that the cards see a lot of play. We have two sub-bubbles within the larger Magic bubble that are unsustainable:

Sub-bubble 1. The Reserved List bubble, which I have been documenting, in my very small, peasant way, for a few years on this blog. I will add another chapter here. There is no play reason for most of the reserved list cards to continue to go up in value. The supply is small and fixed, and the demand is ever-increasing and purely speculative. Demand is based on the premise of an ever-expanding collector and speculator base.

Sub-bubble 2. The variants bubble, which has just gotten started this year, and coincides with the COVID pandemic, a time in which many of us are stuck at home. Those who have disposable money, some from government relief checks, are spending some of this extra money on Magic. In many cases, that money would have been spent on vacations. I plan for the first chapter of my variants bubble watch in some other post, maybe after Zendikar Rising comes out. Fancy variants can only be less playable than the base card since most players will want their base cards to sustain play wear, but will keep their beautiful variants pristine. Even though most of the variants are playable, they will remain a collectible to look at and not to play, Once again, demand is based on the premise of an ever-expanding collector and speculator base.

Collectors and speculators are fueling the bubble. Players stuck at home are also feeding the bubble because they are spending vacation money (and any other non-Magic money, such as checks from the government) on Magic.

Back to the Reserved List bubble. There are many cards on the reserved list that are playable, such as Tolarian Academy.

Tolarian Academy has seen three large increases in value:

1. Summer 2016, from $20 to $35 (all values approximate).

2. Summer 2017, all the way up to $80 and then down to $50.

3. Summer 2020 (COVID), to $100, and still fluctuating.

Tolarian Academy is not a good example of the Reserved List bubble. It could be that more people want to own this one very playable card (I know I do). The best examples of inorganic growth in value are cards that under no circumstances will ever see any play. These cards are subject to attempted buyouts (I will just call them buyouts). The perfect targets for these buyouts are rares from the earliest sets. The cards saw low printings, but not low enough to demand the current valuations (I am making this statement assuming common sense, and not based on any empirical evidence). Here are two examples, picked randomly, and there are many more. 

Exhibit A: City in a Bottle.

City in a Bottle has experienced what I would call buyouts, beginning in 2015.

In the original buyout, in late 2015, the card went from $15 to $60, a four-fold increase.

The card experienced a second buyout in late 2017, and went to $200. You get the picture... it happened again in late 2018 and this COVID summer. A completely unplayable yet reasonably scarce card is $400, the price of four booster boxes of a recent Standard set.

I had another card to discuss, but it doesn't matter. Any one rare from the Reserved List has gone through at least one buyout in recent years. Most of these cards will never see play. 

So, how does a collectible bubble burst? A collectible bubble bursts when we run out of buyers willing to pay ever-increasing prices, and, specifically for Magic, when the game undergoes a significant exit of players. We are not seeing either of these signs. For as long as many of us are stuck at home, we will be spending what would have been vacation money on Magic.

Bubble deflation scenarios:

Scenario 1. The economy tanks and the government stops issuing free money checks, even though the virus is not yet held in check. Such a downturn (which, of course, I very much pray and hope does not happen), would hurt collectors, speculators, and players.

Scenario 2. The economy remains flaky, but the government continues to pump out "free" money, and the virus is not yet held in check. This is a 'things continue as they are' scenario.

Scenario 3. The economy booms once the virus is held at bay enough for everyone to be able to go on vacation again. There will be less substitution of vacation money going to Magic, yet there will also be enough people with money to maintain their Magic hobby. (I want this scenario. I want us all to be happy, even if we have to put up with this silly collectibles bubble).

A prolonged scenario 1 would definitely burst the bubble. It would take much longer for scenario 2 to burst the bubble. In scenario 3, the bubble may not be expanded much, but it would remain inflated. I can't think of any other scenario. In any scenario in which the the virus is held at bay enough for everyone to be able to go on vacation again, the economy will be in good, even great shape. There is plenty of pent-up economic activity that would inevitably happen once the virus is held at bay.

The bubble we now have remains sustainable. We could even say that these valuations make sense (they don't to me, but who am I to know better?). After all, someone is willing to pay these prices. When will it end? I don't know, and I am betting neither do you. The cliff-hanger is the variants bubble, but that one has not yet matured. It may burst before it matures. Only time will tell.

Five Color Gates Standard Deck Part 2

 I made a few changes by adding some flyers.

Here is another early Gate Colossus.

Here is a pair of Gate Colussus early game.

Guild Summit must be a playset in this deck. It's a great card draw engine almost every turn after it drops.

And especially when a second one drops mid to late game and you can draw cards off your untapped Gates.

Nice full hand for the late game!

The deck can brick hard, and that's where Gates Ablaze comes in.

You will only need flyers for late game top-decking.

Here is the Arena version. I am missing several of the key cards, yet it plays well because I have some powerful end-game flyers.