Monday, August 25, 2014

The New Standard

The big news today from Wizards is the change of the rotation cycle to eliminate the core set after M16 and to have two sets per block. Here is how it will play out until the second quarter of calendar year (CY) 2017.


I will miss the core set, but if all those cool reprints come out in what we now call expansions, that will work. The change will take a while to play out, and the first Standard without a core set will take place fourth quarter of calendar year 2016. M16 will be in Standard as long as M15. With this change EVERY set will be in Standard for 5 quarters, and that means that there should not be too much of a change for rotations.

Here are my questions:

1. What effect will this change have on the prices of the tournament staples if every set stays in Standard for 6 quarters instead of 8 quarters for the first set (e.g. Blood), and for 5 quarters instead of 7 quarters for the second set (e.g. Sweat)? Will players be willing to pay $10 for a card to play it for a little over a year, and then watch it go down to $1? Maybe this change will lower the bar for what a tournament staple will cost, but this is wishful thinking. This change will most likely make Standard more expensive to play, but probably not by a lot lot.

2. Standard will change more because instead of decks adapting to a new set during most rotations, the format will have to adapt to one or two sets leaving the format as the new set enters it. This is a big deal. It is heaven to people who thrive on the variability of and newness of limited, and it is also heaven to casual deck builders like yours truly. Will this faster cycle encourage Wizards to reprint more Modern/Legacy/Vintage staples in Standard? I don't have a prediction, just a wish that Liliana of the Veil and Griselbrand get a Standard reprint.

3. Tournament-level play will likely be more expensive and budget players may be less likely to attempt near-competitive builds. The question here is if this money churn will cause more budget players to drop out of Standard or to play it less. My prediction is that this change will not affect budget players too much.

There is no question, I think, that this change will make Standard more fun for deck building, and that is what I enjoy most. I am therefore happy about this change.

There is always the concern of a bubble, and Magic has been on the rise in popularity during the brief period (two years going on three) that I have been playing it. I don't see a bubble, and if the new rotation scheme creates too many Jace, the Mind Sculptors, we may see a bubble. Let's hope not!